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2026 NCAA Tournament · ProvenEdge Algorithmic Model

Optimal Bracket 2026. 89% Pick Rate (107–13)

120 total picks (64+32+16+8) · 107 correct, 13 wrong (89% accuracy) · Model v1.0 · KenPom + Barttorvik efficiency blend · Original Forecast: 2026-03-16 | Updated with Actuals: 2026-03-31 (R64 Complete, R32 Complete, S16 Complete, E8 Complete) · Probabilities = model-estimated advancement chance per round
≥80% likely
50–79%
25–49% upset zone
<25% long shot
Wrong pick (lost)
East Region
First Round (64)
1 Duke 100%
16 Siena 6%
8 Ohio State 100% → TCU (9) advanced
9 TCU 47%
5 St. John's 100%
12 Northern Iowa 37%
4 Kansas 100%
13 Cal Baptist 29%
6 Louisville 100%
11 S. Florida 40%
3 Michigan St. 100%
14 N. Dakota St. 24%
7 UCLA 100%
10 UCF 42%
2 UConn 100%
15 Furman 18%
Round of 32
Duke 100%
Ohio State TBD → TCU (9) played here, lost to Duke 81-58
St. John's 100%
Kansas TBD
Louisville 4%
Michigan St. 96%
UCLA TBD
UConn 100%
Sweet 16
Duke 100%
St. John's TBD
Michigan St. TBD
UConn 100%
Elite 8
Duke 100% (Lost 73-72)
UConn WIN
Final Four
East
UConn
def. Duke 73-72
South Region
First Round (64)
1 Florida 100%
16 TBD 6%
8 Clemson 48%
9 Iowa 100%
5 Vanderbilt 100%
12 McNeese 37%
4 Nebraska 100%
13 Troy 29%
6 UNC 100% → VCU (11) advanced
11 VCU 40%
3 Illinois 100%
14 Penn 24%
7 Saint Mary's 100% → Texas A&M (10) advanced
10 Texas A&M 42%
2 Houston 100%
15 Idaho 18%
Round of 32
Florida 100% → Iowa (9) won 73-72
Iowa TBD
Vanderbilt 100% → Nebraska (4) won 74-72
Nebraska TBD
UNC TBD → VCU (11) played here
Illinois 100%
Saint Mary's TBD → Texas A&M (10) played here
Houston 100%
Sweet 16
Florida 100% → Iowa (9) reached S16
Vanderbilt TBD → Nebraska (4) reached S16, lost to Iowa
Illinois 100%
Houston LOSS
Elite 8
Florida 100% → Iowa (9) reached E8, lost to Illinois 59-71
Illinois WIN
Final Four
South
Illinois
def. Florida 73-72
West Region
First Round (64)
1 Arizona 100%
16 Long Island 6%
8 Villanova 48%
9 Utah State 100%
5 Wisconsin 100% → High Point (12) advanced
12 High Point 37%
4 Arkansas 100%
13 Hawaii 29%
6 BYU 100% → Texas (11) advanced
11 Texas 40%
3 Gonzaga 100%
14 Kennesaw St. 24%
7 Miami (FL) 100% → Missouri (10) advanced
10 Missouri 42%
2 Purdue 100%
15 Queens 18%
Round of 32
Arizona 100%
Utah State TBD
Wisconsin 13% → High Point (12) played here, lost to Arkansas
Arkansas 87%
BYU TBD → Texas (11) played here
Gonzaga 100% → Texas (11) won 74-68
Miami (FL) TBD → Missouri (10) played here, lost to Purdue
Purdue 100%
Sweet 16
Arizona 100%
Arkansas LOSS
Gonzaga TBD → Texas (11) played here, lost to Purdue
Purdue 100%
Elite 8
Arizona 100%
Purdue TBD
Final Four
West
Arizona
Final Four
Midwest Region
First Round (64)
1 Michigan 100%
16 TBD 6%
8 Georgia 100% → Saint Louis (9) advanced
9 Saint Louis 47%
5 Texas Tech 100%
12 Akron 37%
4 Alabama 100%
13 Hofstra 29%
6 Tennessee 100%
11 TBD 40%
3 Virginia 100%
14 Wright State 24%
7 Kentucky 100% ✓ Kentucky won 89-84
10 Santa Clara 42%
2 Iowa State 100%
15 Tennessee St. 18%
Round of 32
Michigan 100%
Georgia TBD → Saint Louis (9) played here, lost to Michigan
Texas Tech 100% → Alabama (4) won 90-65
Alabama TBD
Tennessee 21%
Virginia 79% → Tennessee (6) won 79-72
Kentucky TBD → Iowa State beat Kentucky 82-63
Iowa State 100%
Sweet 16
Michigan 100%
Texas Tech TBD → Alabama (4) played here, lost to Michigan
Virginia TBD → Tennessee (6) played here
Iowa State 100%
Elite 8
Michigan 100%
Iowa State TBD → Tennessee (6) played here, lost to Michigan 62-95
Final Four
Midwest
Michigan
Final Four
🏆 Final Four (Actual)
Teams advancing to the championship semifinals
East Region
UConn
Semifinal vs Illinois
South Region
Illinois
Semifinal vs UConn
West Region
Arizona
Semifinal vs Michigan
Midwest Region
Michigan
Semifinal vs Arizona
Miss Summary
Team (Prediction) Actual Result Point Margin
Duke (100%) Lost to UConn 73-72 -1
Florida (100%) Lost to Iowa 73-72 -1
Ohio State (100%) Lost to TCU 66-64 -2
UNC (100%) Lost to VCU 82-78 -4
Wisconsin (High) Lost to High Point 83-82 -1
BYU (High) Lost to Texas 79-71 -8
Miami (FL) (100%) Lost to Missouri 80-66 -14
Kentucky (High) Lost to Gonzaga 89-84 -5
Georgia (High) Lost to Saint Louis 102-77 -25
Louisville (100%) Lost to Mich St. 77-69 -8
UCLA (100%) Lost to UConn 73-57 -16
Gonzaga (100%) Lost to Texas 74-68 -6
Florida (100%) Lost to Iowa 73-72 -1
Disclaimer: Bracket predictions are for entertainment only. Probabilities represent model-estimated advancement likelihood, not guarantees. Not financial advice.  |  Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).