The NFL market is efficient — but not perfectly efficient. Our models find consistent value in player props, alt lines, and early-week gamelines before sharp money closes the gap. CLV-first delivery means you get on the number before it moves.
The deepest, most competitive betting market in American sports. We analyze every NFL game at institutional scale — 1,700+ markets per game, 100K+ Monte Carlo simulations, and a 10-point framework that demands a 2.5% minimum edge before any recommendation ships.
We cover every NFL game from Week 1 through the Super Bowl. Our models process 1,700+ markets per game — spreads, totals, moneylines, team props, and player props across rushing, receiving, and scoring. Every recommendation clears a 2.5% minimum edge and a full gamescript survivability test.
The NFL market is efficient — but not perfectly efficient. Our models find consistent value in player props, alt lines, and early-week gamelines before sharp money closes the gap. CLV-first delivery means you get on the number before it moves.
Every recommendation goes through the same five-step process — from continuous market polling to the moment it ships to you with full rationale, Kelly units, and gamescript survivability score.
We poll sportsbook markets continuously — capturing gamelines, standard props, and alt props as early as possible. Early capture is how we maximize Closing Line Value (CLV): getting you on the best number before the market moves.
We capture at different timing intervals throughout the week — tracking line movement, identifying sharp action, and monitoring when books adjust. Timing is a competitive advantage.
Captured odds run through 1M+ lines of algorithmic code — gamescript, playscript, and player simulations generate model probabilities. Implied probability vs. model probability produces raw edge values across all 1,700+ markets.
Every qualifying market passes through our full 10-point assessment framework — gamescript survivability, matchup depth, edge threshold, Kelly unit sizing, and a complete 10-point rationale. Only bets that pass all criteria are recommended.
The moment a qualifying recommendation is confirmed, it ships to you with full rationale, Kelly units, and gamescript survivability score. Speed is part of the edge — you get recommendations throughout the week, not just on game day.
No gut feel. No hot takes. Every recommendation is the output of a structured 10-point framework — and ships with a full written rationale so you know exactly why we're backing it.
Determines primary, secondary, and survivor script — how the game is most likely to unfold and which bet types survive each scenario.
Offense, defense, and special teams evaluated as units — strength, matchup fit, recent form, and scheme execution tendencies all quantified.
Individual player projections from 5,000 simulations per player — usage rates, target shares, snap counts, and matchup-adjusted output.
Unit vs. unit and player vs. player — scheme mismatches, personnel groupings, and historical matchup data surfaced and weighted by relevance.
Spreads, totals, and moneylines evaluated against full model probability distributions — not a point estimate but a full outcome curve.
Team-level totals, first-half lines, team scoring props — all priced from playscript simulation output and cross-validated against gamescript scenarios.
Rushing yards, receiving yards, touchdowns, attempts — priced from 5,000 per-player simulations. Standard props and alt lines both evaluated.
Every bet must clear our governance-locked 2.5% minimum edge requirement. No exceptions. No overrides. No gut-feel exemptions.
Every bet is scored for survivability — how robust is this bet if the game goes off-script? Low survivability bets don't make the cut.
Bet units assigned using Kelly Criterion — mathematically optimal staking based on edge magnitude and bankroll management principles.
Subscribe now and get full year access to NFL, NCAAF and UFL — complete 10×10 rationale, Kelly units, and gamescript survivability on every pick.
Claim Founding Member Access →