38
Bets
18
Wins
15
Losses
5
Pending
// F4 Pending · 5 Plays (Spreads, Moneylines, Totals)
GameOpportunityUnambiguous BetModel%Market%EdgeNet EVBest OfferStatus
1
Spread
Illinois
59.8%
48.3%
+11.50pp
+18.4¢
−2.5 @ DK (−102)
PLAY ★
1
Moneyline
Illinois
66.3%
54.4%
+11.91pp
+18.5¢
ML −127 @ Pinnacle
PLAY
2
Spread
Arizona
64.3%
48.6%
+15.66pp
+28.6¢
+1.5 @ Pinnacle (+100)
PLAY ★
2
Moneyline
Arizona
60.6%
46.1%
+14.47pp
+27.9¢
ML +111 @ Pinnacle
PLAY
2
Under 157.0
Under
72.4%
47.9%
+24.49pp
+45.5¢
Under @ Pinnacle (+101)
PLAY
// Tournament Betting Results
RoundMatchupRegionSpreadWin ProbabilityFavoredCallResult
E8
(3) Purdue @ (1) Arizona
West
−6.0
66.7%
(1) Arizona
Arizona -6.0
✓ Arizona 79-64
E8
(2) UConn @ (1) Duke
East
−5.5
73.0%
(1) Duke
Duke -5.5
LOSS ✗ UConn 73–72 (cvrd -1.5, needed -5.5)
E8
(3) Illinois vs (7) Iowa
South
−7.0
64.4%
(3) Illinois
Illinois -7.0
✓ Illinois 71-59
E8
(3) Tennessee @ (1) Michigan
South
+7.5
56.7%
(1) Michigan
Tennessee +7.5
LOSS ✗ Michigan 87-56
E8
(3) Purdue @ (1) Arizona Total
West
O 153.5
62.6%
Over
OVER 153.5
LOSS ✗ Arizona 79-64 (total 143)
E8
(2) UConn @ (1) Duke Total
East
O 134.5
76.4%
Over
OVER 134.5
✓ 145 total (over 134.5)
E8
(7) Iowa @ (3) Illinois Total
South
O 138.5
69.2%
Over
OVER 138.5
LOSS ✗ Illinois 71-59 (total 130)
E8
(3) Tennessee @ (1) Michigan Total
South
U 146.5
57.3%
Under
UNDER 146.5
LOSS ✗ Michigan 87-56 (total 143)
S16
(1) Arizona vs (4) Arkansas
West
−
84.7%
(1) Arizona
Arizona ML
✓ Arizona 109–88
S16
(2) UConn vs (3) Michigan St.
East
+6.0
74.8%
(2) UConn
Michigan St. +6
✓ UConn 67–63
S16
(2) Houston vs (3) Illinois
South
+5.5
67.7%
(2) Houston
Illinois +5.5
✓ Illinois 65–55
S16
(2) Purdue vs (11) Texas
West
−
77.9%
(2) Purdue
Purdue ML
✓ Purdue 79–77
S16
(1) Michigan vs (4) Alabama
Midwest
+10.5
66.9%
(1) Michigan
Alabama +10.5
LOSS ✗ Michigan 90–77
R32
(1) Florida vs (9) Iowa
South
+10.5
70.8%
(1) Florida
Iowa +10.5
✓ Iowa 73–72
R32
(4) St. John's vs (4) Kansas
East
+2.1
51.2%
(4) St. John's
Kansas ML
LOSS ✗ Kansas 67–65 (cvrd 2, needed ML)
R32
(3) Illinois vs (6) VCU
South
+11.5
71.4%
(3) Illinois
VCU Rams +11.5
LOSS ✗ VCU 55–76 (cvrd 9.5, needed 11.5)
R32
(2) Houston vs (10) Texas A&M
South
+10.5
77.5%
(2) Houston
Texas A&M +10.5
LOSS ✗ Texas A&M 57–88 (cvrd 20.5, needed 10.5)
R32
(3) Michigan St. vs (6) Louisville
East
+5.5
73.6%
(3) Michigan St.
Louisville +5.5
LOSS ✗ Louisville 69–77 (cvrd 2.5, needed 5.5)
R64
(1) Duke vs (16) Siena
East
−11.5
98.3%
(1) Duke
Duke −11.5
LOSS ✗ Duke 71–65 (cvrd 6, needed 11.5)
R64
(2) UConn vs (15) Furman
East
−20.6
95.0%
(2) UConn
UConn −20.6
LOSS ✗ UConn 82–71 (cvrd 11, needed 20.6)
R64
(3) Michigan St. vs (14) N. Dak. St.
East
−14.9
85.1%
(3) Michigan St.
Michigan St. −14.9
✓ Michigan St. 92–67
R64
(2) Iowa State vs (15) Tenn. St.
Midwest
−23.7
93.7%
(2) Iowa State
Iowa State −23.7
✓ Iowa State 108–74
R64
(3) Virginia vs (14) Wright St.
Midwest
−17.7
88.5%
(3) Virginia
Virginia −17.7
LOSS ✗ Virginia 82–73 (won by 5, needed 17.7)
R64
(4) Alabama vs (13) Hofstra
Midwest
−11.0
81.4%
(4) Alabama
Alabama −11.0
✓ Alabama 90–70
R64
(2) Houston vs (15) Idaho
South
−18.4
88.8%
(2) Houston
Houston −18.4
✓ Houston 78–47
R64
(3) Illinois vs (14) Penn
South
−21.2
96.4%
(3) Illinois
Illinois −21.2
✓ Illinois 105–70
R64
(4) Nebraska vs (13) Troy
South
−15.0
80.2%
(4) Nebraska
Nebraska −15.0
✓ Nebraska 76–47
R64
(5) Vanderbilt vs (12) McNeese
South
−10.2
75.2%
(5) Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt −10.2
✓ Vanderbilt 78–68
R64
(1) Arizona vs (16) LIU
West
−30.6
98.6%
(1) Arizona
Arizona −30.6
✓ Arizona 92–58
R64
(2) Purdue vs (15) Queens
West
−26.3
97.6%
(2) Purdue
Purdue −26.3
✓ Purdue 104–71
R64
(3) Gonzaga vs (14) Kennesaw St.
West
−18.8
89.6%
(3) Gonzaga
Gonzaga −18.8
LOSS ✗ GON 68–74 (cvrd 12.8, needed 18.8)
R64
(4) Arkansas vs (13) Hawaii
West
−16.1
84.6%
(4) Arkansas
Arkansas −16.1
✓ Arkansas 97–78
R64
(5) Wisconsin vs (12) High Point
West
−12.3
79.2%
(5) Wisconsin
Wisconsin −12.3
LOSS ✗ HP 94–88 (cvrd 6.3, needed 12.3)
// Methodology

Recommendations based on 100,000 bracket simulations using KenPom + Barttorvik composite efficiency ratings. A game is flagged PLAY/BET when the absolute difference between model win probability and market-implied fair probability exceeds 5 percentage points. Edge = model win prob − market fair prob (after devigging moneyline odds). Positive edge: bet the team shown. Negative edge: bet the opponent. Market lines pending bookmaker posting (expected 24-48 hours before games).