NFL · NCAAF · UFL · Year-Round Algorithmic Football Intelligence

Maximum
ROI.
Every Game.
Every Bet.

A family business built on decades of institutional trading systems. We are massive fans of the game — and we found a way to beat the market. Now we're sharing it.

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Markets / NFL game
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Game simulations
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Sims / player
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Lines of algo code
Request Early Access See The Method
Live Recommendations
CLV-optimized · Updated now
MarketEdgeUnits
NFL · Gameline
Chiefs ML
 +7.8%
2.1u Kelly
NCAAF · Spread
Michigan −3.5
 +5.1%
1.4u Kelly
NFL · Total
Bills Over 49.5
 +3.8%
1.1u Kelly
NFL · Player Prop
Kelce O 65.5 Rec Yds
 +4.4%
1.2u Kelly
UFL · Gameline
Stallions −1
 +2.7%
0.8u Kelly
Min edge 2.5% · Kelly units assigned · 10pt rationale included 5 bets found
UFL 2026
NCAAF P4
NFL 2026
By The Numbers

Industrial-scale analysis.
Maximum ROI output.

Every recommendation we deliver is the product of a computational process built to the same standard as institutional trading systems — applied to every football game, every week, year-round.

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Bet markets analyzed per NFL game
Every gameline, standard prop, alt prop, and derivative market — evaluated and priced against our model before a single recommendation ships.
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Monte Carlo simulations per game
Full game simulations producing a probability distribution of outcomes — the foundation of our gamescript and all game-level market pricing.
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Play-level simulations per team
Playscript modeling of team tendencies, scheme fits, and situational play-calling — driving team prop accuracy that the market consistently underestimates.
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Simulations per player
Individual player projections built from 5,000 simulations each — accounting for usage, matchup, scheme role, and game flow to price props with genuine edge.
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Lines of algorithmic code per game
Not a black box. Over one million lines of purpose-built algorithms — refined continuously, powered by multi-modal AI, and driven by one goal: your ROI.
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Proven Edge Analysis Framework
Every game. Every bet. A 10-point assessment across gamescript, matchup, player, and market — plus a 10-point written rationale on every single recommendation we ship.
The Process

From first market poll
to your betting recommendations.

Every bet we recommend travels a precise, multi-stage pipeline. Multi-modal AI powers every layer. Every step is optimized for one outcome: maximizing your ROI.

01
Continuous Sportsbook Market Polling

We poll sportsbook markets continuously — capturing gamelines, standard props, and alt props as early as possible. Early capture is how we maximize Closing Line Value (CLV): getting you on the best number before the market moves.

CLV Maximization
02
Multi-Interval Odds Capture

We capture at different timing intervals throughout the week — tracking line movement, identifying sharp action, and monitoring when books adjust. Timing is a competitive advantage.

CLV Timing · Sharp Line Monitor
03
Algorithmic Processing

Captured odds run through 1M+ lines of algorithmic code — gamescript, playscript, and player simulations generate model probabilities. Implied probability vs. model probability produces raw edge values across all 1,700+ markets.

1M+ Lines of Code
04
10×10 Proven Edge Analysis

Every qualifying market passes through our full 10-point assessment framework — gamescript survivability, matchup depth, edge threshold, Kelly unit sizing, and a complete 10-point rationale. Only bets that pass all criteria are recommended.

10×10 Framework
05
Recommendations Shipped — Fast

We move as fast as possible. The moment a qualifying recommendation is confirmed, it ships to you — with full rationale, Kelly units, and gamescript survivability score. Speed is part of the edge.

Speed to Market
10 point assessment × 10 point rationale

The Proven Edge
10×10 Framework.

Every game. Every bet. Our 10-point assessment evaluates each opportunity from ten angles — and every recommendation comes with a 10-point rationale so you know exactly why we're backing it.

01
Gamescript Analysis

Determines primary, secondary, and survivor script — how the game is most likely to unfold and which bet types survive each scenario.

02
Team Unit Analysis

Offense, defense, and special teams evaluated as units — strength, matchup fit, recent form, and scheme execution tendencies all quantified.

03
Player Analysis

Individual player projections from 5,000 simulations per player — usage rates, target shares, snap counts, and matchup-adjusted output.

04
Matchup Analysis

Unit vs. unit and player vs. player — scheme mismatches, personnel groupings, and historical matchup data surfaced and weighted by relevance.

05
Gameline Bet Analysis

Spreads, totals, and moneylines evaluated against full model probability distributions — not a point estimate but a full outcome curve.

06
Team Props

Team-level totals, first-half lines, team scoring props — all priced from playscript simulation output and cross-validated against gamescript scenarios.

07
Player Props

Rushing yards, receiving yards, touchdowns, attempts — priced from 5,000 per-player simulations. Standard props and alt lines both evaluated.

08
Edge Threshold

Every bet must clear our governance-locked 2.5% minimum edge requirement. No exceptions. No overrides. No gut-feel exemptions.

09
Gamescript Survivability

Every bet is analyzed across all gamescript scenarios and scored for survivability — how robust is this bet if the game goes off-script?

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Kelly Criterion Sizing

Bet units assigned using Kelly Criterion — mathematically optimal staking based on edge magnitude and bankroll management principles.

+10
10-Point Rationale

Every single recommendation ships with a complete 10-point written rationale — the gamescript context, key matchup drivers, and survivability score. You always know the "why."

+10
Full Transparency

We track every recommendation — wins and losses — and share the complete performance record with you. No cherry-picking. No spin. Total accountability.

Transparency

We track everything.
We share everything.

We believe the best way to earn your trust is to show you our work — win or lose. We track every recommendation we make and share our complete performance record with you. No cherry-picking. No spin. Full transparency.

Complete Performance Tracking

Every recommendation is logged with the bet details, edge at time of recommendation, CLV captured, Kelly units assigned, and result. Edge performance is tracked bet-by-bet so you can see exactly where value is being generated. Wins and losses both — you see the whole picture, always.

100%
Bets tracked
Edge
Tracked per bet
CLV
Captured & reported
ROI
Published results
Recent Recommendations Sample · Illustrative
NFL · Gameline
Chiefs ML −145
2.1u
WIN
+1.45u
NFL · Player Prop
Kelce O 65.5 Rec Yds
1.2u
WIN
+1.09u
NCAAF · Spread
Michigan −3.5
1.4u
LOSS
−1.4u
NFL · Total
Bills Over 49.5
1.1u
WIN
+1.00u
UFL · Team Prop
Stallions 1H Over 13.5
0.9u
WIN
+0.82u
All results published. No filters. No cherry-picks. +2.96u net · sample period
Our Story

Institutional trading meets
America's game.

After years building algorithmic systems for large financial institutions, I kept asking: what if we applied this same rigor to something our family truly loves?

We are massive fans of the game — NFL, NCAAF, UFL, year-round. We studied the market for years, built the models, ran the numbers. We found the edge. Now we want to share it with you.
Founder, ProvenEdge.ai Institutional trading systems architect · Lifelong football obsessive
🏛️
Institutional DNA

The discipline behind large-scale financial trading systems now powers every recommendation. Systematic, rigorous, and relentlessly edge-focused.

🤖
Multi-Modal AI, Continuously Improved

Our entire system is built on multi-modal AI. We use the best models in the market and continuously optimize our algorithms — because the edge belongs to whoever improves fastest.

👨‍👩‍👧‍👦
A Family Business

Highly competitive. Passionate about football. Deeply committed to our customers winning — because that's exactly what this was built to do.

🏈
Football. Only Football.

NFL, NCAAF, and UFL — year-round. Specialization is how you build models that actually beat the market.

Coverage

One sport. Three leagues.
365 days a year.

League 01
NFL

The deepest, most competitive betting market in American sports. We analyze every game at institutional scale across all market types — spreads, totals, moneylines, and props.

Season · Post Season · Championship
League 02
NCAAF

Focused on FBS Power 4 — where the sharpest betting action and deepest markets are. Our models find consistent value where books still leave gaps across the biggest programs.

Season · Post Season · Championship
League 03
UFL

The spring league the market consistently underestimates. Thinner book coverage creates wider inefficiencies — our models find them early and exploit them before they close.

Season · Post Season · Championship
Early Access

The full picture.
Every game.

ProvenEdge.ai is currently in private beta. We're onboarding a select group of early customers who want to bet football the way institutional traders approach markets — with a 10×10 analysis, Kelly-sized units, and complete transparency on every recommendation.

Request Early Access

Opens your email app with a pre-filled message to [email protected]

// Disclaimer & No Guarantee of Results

Proven Edge LLC provides sports analytics, statistical research, projections, and informational content for educational and entertainment purposes only. Proven Edge LLC does not operate a sportsbook, accept wagers, place bets on behalf of others, or facilitate gambling transactions of any kind. All information, models, projections, and recommendations are provided "as is" with no guarantees of accuracy, completeness, or profitability. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Users are solely responsible for any decisions they make based on the information provided. Proven Edge LLC assumes no liability for losses incurred as a result of the use of its content. Use of this site and its content constitutes acceptance of these terms.